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Cost vs ROI Reality Check: The Number Most People Calculate Wrong

Tuition is not the cost of a career switch. Here's the number to plan against instead.

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Best for

Anyone comparing programs by price tag, or working out how long they can afford to be in transition.

Not best for

Anyone whose route lets them keep earning throughout. If there's no income gap, this reduces to the tuition figure you already have.

When to use it

Before you set a budget, and before you decide a program is affordable or out of reach.

When not to use it

Don't use it to rank routes on cost alone. The cheapest route on this calculation can still be the wrong one.

How it fits the route system

This is the Real Cost filter of the route test, made specific. It produces one number per route, which feeds the comparison scorecard.

Common mistake

Comparing a program's tuition against a rough sense of what you earn now. Both halves need real numbers: what you actually take home, and what you'd actually earn during the transition — not zero by default, and not your current salary either.

Most people calculate the cost of a career switch wrong. They look at the tuition, stop there, and end up either reassured or frightened by a number that isn’t the real one.

The formula

Real Cost = Tuition + Income Gap

Where Income Gap is the income you would have earned at your current job during the transition, minus the income you actually earn during the transition.

Worked example

A bootcamp costs $10,000 in tuition. It runs six months, with no income during that time. Your current job pays $38,000 a year, so six months of it is $19,000.

$10,000 + ($19,000 − $0) = $29,000

That’s the number to plan against. Not $10,000. The figures here are an example of the calculation, not a claim about what any program costs or pays.

Run it for your route

  • Tuition and fees: ______________
  • Months in transition: ______________
  • What you’d have earned over those months: ______________
  • What you’ll actually earn over those months: ______________
  • Income Gap (subtract the second from the first): ______________
  • Real Cost (tuition + income gap): ______________

What this changes

Two things, usually. A route that looked cheap because tuition was low can turn out expensive once the income gap is counted — and a route that looked expensive can turn out cheaper than an unpaid one, because you kept earning throughout. That second case is why earn-while-you-learn routes often win on this calculation despite a longer timeline.

This gives you one number per route. What it doesn’t give you is the other side: how fast income recovers afterwards, and whether it recovers to more than you left. The Guided Route System builds that out into a speed-to-income map across month 12 and month 24.